苹果产业日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current late - Fuji apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, which is reflected in the market, and price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended that previous long positions can take profits, and new positions should wait and see for the time being [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 8,919 yuan/ton, with a change of 1535; the main contract's open interest is 2,205 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 135,556 lots, with a change of 19,058 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.1 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change in all regions [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons. The average wholesale price of apples is 9.46 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.15 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and in Shaanxi is 0.41. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 6,917.9 million US dollars. The monthly export value of apples is 1,837,980 million US dollars, with an increase of 248,684.5 million US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 6.74 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.56 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.18 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 5.48 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily truck arrivals at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, with an increase of 0.4 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 27.6 vehicles, with an increase of 3 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.99%, with an increase of 1.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 23.98%, with an increase of 1.43% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The trading of ground - sourced apples in the western production areas is coming to an end, with the overall quality declining, and market merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is okay, with little price change. In the Shandong production area, the supply of late - season Fuji apples is okay, but the quality is declining. Warehousing merchants have basically left, and most are purchased by small vendors and market merchants, with uneven quality and transactions based on quality [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - As of November 5, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 698.42 million tons, 115.02 million tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 41.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; in the Shaanxi production area is 56.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.77%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have smaller fruit sizes and poor fruit - surface quality, showing a trend of reduced production and quality. Shaanxi's warehousing is coming to an end, and the expected warehousing volume next week is the peak value [2]