瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2512 down 3.91% and the far - month contracts down 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index decreased by 7.9% week - on - week, weakening the freight rate support. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Although mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November and Maersk's price support in mid - and late October was successful, the freight rate market is affected by multiple factors. The current freight rate market is greatly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - EC2512 main contract closed at 1848.200, down 75.2; EC2602 (secondary main) closed at 1601, down 30.4. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 247.20, down 46.80; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 670.20, down 76.20. The EC contract basis was - 639.49, up 97.80. The main contract's open interest was 28412 hands, down 5660 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1208.71, down 104.00; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1107.32, up 159.83. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1550.70, up 147.24. Container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1021.39, up 28.65; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1323.81, up 30.69. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2003.00, down 45.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1793.00, down 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 26482.00, up 2605.00 [1]. Industry News - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping the additional tariffs on some US - made imports announced on March 4, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate, etc. [1] - The US federal government's "shutdown" has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points, and if the stalemate continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irrecoverable [1]. - EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% with flexibility, and member states can offset up to 5% of the emission reduction tasks by purchasing international carbon credits [1]. Key Data to Watch - November 7: China's October export year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), China's October import year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), US October unemployment rate (to be determined), US October seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls (in ten thousand people) (to be determined), Germany's September seasonally adjusted trade balance (in billion euros) at 15:00, and the preliminary value of the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index at 23:00 [1]