瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2512 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6300 yuan/ton. This week, the 450,000 - ton Tianjin Bohua and 800,000 - ton Zhongwei Guangdong plants restarted, and new capacity utilization increased, leading to a rise in styrene production and capacity utilization. Last week, downstream operating rates mainly declined, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventories decreased, but inventory pressure remained high. Spot pure benzene and ethylene CFR Northeast Asia continued to be weak, with non - integrated process costs decreasing and profits recovering. International oil prices have been oscillating weakly recently due to inventory accumulation in the US API and EIA and a stronger US dollar. The upcoming shutdown of Hengli's 720,000 - ton plant and the increase in some downstream operating loads may intensify the short - term supply - demand tight balance of styrene, but the improvement in supply - demand under high inventory pressure has limited positive effects. Currently, non - integrated plants are deeply in the red, and integrated plants have a slight loss. The valuation is at a low level, but there is a lack of drivers for recovery. Technically, EB2512 should focus on the support around 6200 and the resistance around 6410 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6300 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the trading volume was 273,144 lots, down 116,439 lots; the open interest was 393,351 lots, up 8449 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 451,984 lots, and the short positions were 479,417 lots, with a net long position of - 27,433 lots, down 1294 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 6337 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6722 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 781 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 791 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6040 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), 6450 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan), 6330 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and 6315 yuan/ton (down 85 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 741 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of ethylene CIF Northwest Europe was 662 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), and Rotterdam (FOB) were 245 cents/gallon (up 1 cent), 662.52 US dollars/ton, and 674 US dollars/ton respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China were 5450 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5335 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan), and 5230 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 66.72%, down 2.53 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 186,036 tons, down 10,231 tons; the total inventory at the East China main port was 179,300 tons, down 13,700 tons; the trade inventory at the East China main port was 109,800 tons, down 11,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (up 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (down 0.7 percentage points), 52% (down 1.8 percentage points), 35% (up 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (down 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 332,900 tons, a 2.94% increase from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 66.94%, a 0.22% increase from the previous period. From October 24 to 30, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 0.18% to 271,500 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 30, the styrene plant inventory was 186,000 tons, a 5.21% decrease from the previous week. As of November 3, the inventory at the East China port was 179,300 tons, a 7.10% decrease from the previous week; the inventory at the South China port was 27,900 tons, a 10% decrease from the previous week. From October 24 to 30, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 6860.06 yuan/ton, and the profit of non - integrated plants recovered to - 400 yuan/ton [2].