煤焦异动点评：供应持续下降，焦煤强势反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on coking coal, suggesting to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [9] Core Viewpoints - As of the afternoon close on November 6, coking coal showed a strong upward trend. The main coking coal contract JM2601 rose 2.38% (+30.0) to 1290.5, with a 15.64% (+174.5) increase from the previous stage low. The far - month contract J2605 also rose 1.66% (+22.0) to 1345.0. All coking coal contracts had varying degrees of increase [1] - The rise in coking coal futures is due to tight Mongolian coal resources, a decline in domestic coal mine开工, the third round of coke price increase, and winter storage demand [1][3][8] - Looking ahead, the coking coal market is expected to continue rising, and the supply - demand gap may widen further [8][9] Summary by Related Factors Mongolian Coal Resources - Mongolian coal supply has been tight. Since October, the daily average customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 21.3% compared to September. In November, although the customs clearance increased, the supply of main coking coal remained short [1] - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been rising. As of November 5, it was 1170 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the post - National Day low and 465 yuan/ton from the year - low in mid - June. The coking coal futures were still at a discount, with potential for a catch - up increase [2] Domestic Coal Mine Production - Due to safety and environmental reasons, domestic coal mine开工 decreased this week. As of November 5, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines was 83.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The daily production of raw coal was 186.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0 tons [3] - By the end of this year, coal mine开工 may continue to operate at a low level. The recovery of coking coal production is limited, and there may be production cuts in December. The domestic coking coal supply remains tight [4] Coke Price Increase - On November 5, the third round of coke price increase was officially implemented. The price increase has repaired the profits of coking enterprises to some extent and provided an upward space for coking coal prices. Coke may have further price increase potential [8] Winter Storage Demand - In November, downstream coking enterprises and steel mills usually start winter storage. Although the iron - making water production has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level and may rebound. The demand - side support is strong, and winter storage demand will exacerbate the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal [8]