建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Coke and coking coal futures have declined due to the accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may be volatile and bullish after a period of correction and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the resilience of the spot market, the lag effect of the transfer from steel profits to raw material costs, and whether subsequent steel production data confirms the expectation of accelerated production cuts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On November 5th, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures turned to volatile recovery after 4 consecutive trading days of volatile decline. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1753 yuan/ton and 1268.5 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.03% and 0.47%. The trading volumes were 19,107 lots and 807,948 lots respectively, and the positions decreased by 391 lots and 737 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.05 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan respectively [5]. - In the black - series futures on November 5th, the long - short deviation degrees of RB2601, HC2601, SS2512, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 were - 2.68%, 0.37%, - 1.65%, 1.90%, 3.17%, and - 2.06% respectively [6]. - On November 5th, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1750 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1615 yuan/ton, with no change; in Linfen, it was 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; in Handan, it was 1580 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 5th, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the coke 2601 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days and was close to a dead cross; the daily MACD red column of the coking coal 2601 contract narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the successful third - round price increase of coke spot. The coal prices have generally risen due to the low - temperature weather in most parts of the north and the stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level. Although coking coal imports have recovered, the year - on - year decline from January to September is still more than 6%, and the coking coal spot price has significantly increased [9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of now, Shanxi Province has fully completed the shutdown and elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, with a cumulative shutdown and elimination of over 90 million tons of 4.3 - meter coke oven capacity and a cumulative reduction of 44.24 million tons of excess coking capacity [10]. - In the first 10 months of this year, the total issuance of local government bonds nationwide was approximately 9.1062 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 23%. The issuance of local government bonds accelerated significantly this year, mainly concentrated in the first half. Since July, the monthly issuance scale has declined month by month, and the issuance in October was about 560 billion yuan [10]. - On November 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [10]. - Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States have been suspended. The additional 15% tariff on imported coking coal from the United States has been suspended, but the 3% import tariff and 10% additional tariff remain, bringing the current tariff on imported coking coal from the United States to 13%. As of September, China imported 2.9088 million tons of coking coal from the United States [10]. - Hengyuan Coal & Electricity plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Hongneng Coal Industry and Changsheng Energy held by Shaanxi Black Cat with its own funds of 439.86 million yuan and assume the creditor's rights of 1.137 billion yuan to the target companies. The acquisition may increase the company's resource reserves [10][11]. - Kailuan Co., Ltd. stated that its main business includes coal mining, raw coal washing and processing, coal product sales, coking, and the production and sales of coal - chemical products. In the reporting period, the operating cost rate increased by 15.27% compared with the second quarter. The profit in the third quarter decreased compared with the second quarter due to factors such as changes in coal mine geological conditions and the squeeze on profit margins in the coal - chemical business [11]. - In September, Indonesia's coke exports continued to recover, with both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates exceeding 10%. In September, Indonesia's coke exports were 657,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.62% and a month - on - month increase of 17.53% [11]. - Many Wall Street analysts believe that due to the high financing costs, the current liquidity shortage in the US money market may last until November, which may force the Federal Reserve to take emergency measures to enhance liquidity before officially stopping the balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [11]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the summary price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke, the national daily average hot - metal output, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operation rate of sample mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and the basis of Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][17][18][24][26][27].