Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand as the temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, influenced by trade optimism, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from lows and strengthened in the short - term. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near - month. Oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, and shutdowns are common, so rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. After a continuous decline, the rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed was 640.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1 Canadian dollar, and that of rapeseed was 5,120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 391 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 2,830 hands to 211,735 hands, while those of rapeseed meal increased by 34,202 hands to 442,304 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil increased by 6,170 hands to - 2,365 hands, and those of rapeseed meal increased by 17,365 hands to 14,402 hands [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,726 to 5,112, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 200 to 2,755 [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,897.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,864.44 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The oil - meal ratio was 3.75, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 216 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 1 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons, and the annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1,068 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons, and that of rapeseed meal was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operation Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons, and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit was 662 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 3,128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons, and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 21.78%, down 0.03 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil was 12.74%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 25.75%, up 0.5 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 26.92%, up 0.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.7%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.03%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures changed little on November 5, after significant price fluctuations in recent days, the market consolidated without a clear direction. The January rapeseed futures rose 0.30 Canadian dollars to close at 640.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosted the US soybean futures price and benefited the domestic meal market [2]. - The leaders of Canada and China met in South Korea last week but failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251106
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 11:26