芳烃橡胶早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device load reduction leads to a slight decline in start - up, while polyester load increases, inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis strengthens. PX domestic start - up recovers, and PXN expands. Considering the long - term low processing fees and improved terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based restart and overseas device restart lead to a decline in port inventory at the beginning of the week, but the long - term pattern is bearish due to high inventory. However, there may be negative feedback on the supply side after the decline in coal - based benefits, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term restart of Fujian Shanli increases the start - up, but sales decline. The overall efficiency and start - up of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly. With high exports and good spot efficiency, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees and warehouse receipts [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 35, and the PTA processing fee increased by 24. The basis was - 76, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(-76) [2]. - Device Changes: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton device reduced its load [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 2, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 2. The basis was around +76 for 01 [3]. - Device Changes: Tongliao's 300,000 - ton device restarted [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 15, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 25. The spot price was around 6332, and the market basis was around - 10 for 12 [3]. - Device Changes: Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 195. The mixed - rubber price increased by 200 [6]. - Key Indicators Changes: The mixed - rubber to RU main contract spread increased by 5, and the US - dollar Thai standard rubber to NR main contract spread decreased by 66 [6]. Styrene - Price Changes: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by 10, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 160 [9]. - Profit Changes: The styrene domestic profit increased by 30, and the EPS domestic profit increased by 28 [9].