白糖早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar market will shift from a supply - demand balance to a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The expected surplus varies among different institutions, such as 740 million tons by Czarnikow, 277 million tons by StoneX, and 153 million tons by Datagro. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows relative resistance while the international sugar price is falling, but the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is considered unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4][8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, and ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply gap (significantly reduced from the previous forecast). In China, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5720, and the basis for the 01 contract is 272, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish, so it is bearish overall [4]. - Expectation: In the short term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to the decline of international sugar prices, but in the long term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is not sustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (almost balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro expects a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus forecasts a 40 - million - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115 - million - ton surplus [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.