天胶早报-20251107

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint The market has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is -695, showing a bearish signal [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year; Qingdao area inventory increased week-on-week and year-on-year, a neutral situation [4] - The 20-day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20-day line, a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, a bearish signal [4] Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - Inventory: Exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing, while Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [14][17] - Import: Import volume has rebounded [20] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on November 6th [8] - Basis: The basis strengthened on November 6th [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]