大越期货PVC期货早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report points out that the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12][13]. - The report expects the overall cost to weaken, with an increase in supply pressure this week and a projected increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4603 - 4657 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 329250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 147710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.799 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 8.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2239.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - On November 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 337968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 85600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89% [9]. - The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various price indicators, spreads, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - The report analyzes the calcium carbide method from multiple aspects, including raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and also examines PVC supply trends, demand trends, inventory, and the ethylene method, as well as provides a monthly supply - demand balance table [27][39][44][56][58][61].