焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-7）-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: The coking coal market continues to be strong due to tight supply and active restocking by downstream coke enterprises. After the third round of coke price increases, the cost pressure has eased, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low downstream acceptance. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - Coke: After the third round of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term. With high raw material costs, coke production increases slowly. Terminal pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills still have restocking needs. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Supply in major producing areas is tight, with strict environmental and safety controls. Downstream restocking and reduced supply lead to inventory reduction. After the third round of coke price increases, the market is strong [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1430, and the basis is 139.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week, including 781.1 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 819.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [2]. - Expectation: After the third - round price increase of coke, the cost pressure eases, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low acceptance, and the price is expected to remain stable [2]. - Coke - Fundamentals: After the third - round price increase, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 1720, and the basis is - 56.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week, including 650.8 tons in steel mills, 195.1 tons in ports, and 42.5 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - Expectation: High raw material costs slow down production increases. Pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills have restocking needs. The price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive: Pig iron production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - Negative: Coke and steel enterprises slow down raw material coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [4]. - Coke - Positive: Pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increase [8]. - Negative: Steel mill profit margins are squeezed, and restocking demand is partially overdrawn [8]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - Independent Coke Enterprises Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [44].