沪锌期货早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2512) are expected to be volatile and tend to be strong in the short - term. The analysis is based on multiple factors including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and technical indicators [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was - 95, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 6, the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 34,100 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 401 tons to 68,022 tons compared to the previous day, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes (November 6) - For the zinc futures of different delivery months, there were various price changes. For example, the contract 2512 had an opening price of 22,605, a high of 22,685, a low of 22,535, and a closing price of 22,675, with a trading volume of 100,028 lots and a trading value of 1.1302888 billion yuan [3]. 3.5 Domestic Spot Market Quotes (November 6) - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC for domestic production was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/thousand tons. The price of 0 zinc varied in different regions, such as 22,580 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,410 yuan/ton in Guangdong (down 20 yuan/ton), 22,565 yuan/ton in Tianjin, and 22,535 yuan/ton in Zhejiang (down 20 yuan/ton) [4]. 3.6 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 27 - November 6, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 16.47 million tons on October 27 to 16.16 million tons on November 6. Compared with October 30, the inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons, and compared with November 3, it decreased by 0.07 million tons [5]. 3.7 SHFE Zinc Warrant Report (November 6) - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 68,022 tons, a decrease of 401 tons compared to the previous day. The decrease mainly occurred in Tianjin, where the warrants of some warehouses decreased [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (November 6) - The total LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 29,575 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 4,525 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 13.27% [7]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 6) - The processing fees for zinc concentrate varied by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, while in Shandong, it was 3,100 yuan/metal ton (down 100 yuan/metal ton). The average processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/thousand tons [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 6) - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2512 contract, Guotai Junan ranked first with a trading volume of 25,895 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots compared to the previous day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures ranked first with 11,353 lots, a decrease of 73 lots compared to the previous day. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 18,208 lots, an increase of 129 lots compared to the previous day [17]. 3.12 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile upward trend, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with the long positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed above the moving - average system, and the moving - average provided strong support. The short - term indicator KDJ declined but remained in the strong area, and the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength increased while the short - side strength decreased, with the long - side strength advantage expanding [19].