大越期货玻璃早报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of glass has recently shown an increase after reaching a relatively low level, with more disturbances on the supply - side. However, the terminal demand is still weak. Therefore, it is expected that the glass market will mainly move in a sideways pattern in the short - term [3][7]. 3. Section Summaries Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1097 yuan/ton to 1101 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase. The cash price of Shahe Safety large - size glass remained unchanged at 1048 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 49 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a change of 8.16% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content about the cost side is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with production capacity at the lowest level in the same period of history but showing signs of recovery [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [30][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [5]. Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [6].