大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251107

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for LLDPE and PP is bearish, with expectations of weak and volatile trends today. The main factors include an oversupply situation, a decline in manufacturing PMI, limited support from the cost side of crude oil, and relatively high industrial inventories. However, the recent rebound in oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the phased easing of Sino-US relations may provide some support [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but inventory replenishment for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6750 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, recent Sino - US talks, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PE is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [4]. - Likely Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [5]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term pattern of crude oil remains unchanged in terms of cost support. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. Considering the oversupply in the fundamentals, Sino - US talks, the rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PP is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [6]. - Likely Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [7]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].