大越期货纯碱早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1195 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.00%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1145 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a change of 24.00% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1145 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%. The weekly output was 75.76 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.98 tons, at a historical high. Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year [18][20][5] 3.4 Soda Ash Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21] 3.5 Soda Ash Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% and a stable trend. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, decreased, and the demand for soda ash weakened [24][27][5] 3.6 Soda Ash Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 171.42 tons, an increase of 0.72% compared to the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34] 3.7 Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash showed different trends. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, and there was a supply - demand difference of 157 tons [35] 3.8 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3] - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The main risk points include the lower - than - expected cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and better - than - expected macro - level benefits [4]