PTA、MEG早报-20251107

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 7, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the broader market and market rumors, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market had a mediocre trading atmosphere with weak spot basis. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made ethylene glycol vessels. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: Affected by the broader market and rumors, futures rose, spot trading was mediocre, and the basis was weak. 11 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with a price range of 4480 - 4605. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4540, 01 contract basis was - 148, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The spot market trading atmosphere is dull, mainly dominated by traders. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol had a wide - range adjustment. This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made vessels, and the supply in the month is abundant [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3978, 01 contract basis was 54, with the futures price lower than the spot price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 56.7 tons, an increase of 6.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, PTA production capacity was 8062, output was 591, and consumption was 572 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Displays the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, ethylene glycol production was 51, import was 128, and consumption was 211 [12]. - Price Data: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 6 and 5, 2025, as well as price changes, basis, and processing margins. For example, the spot price of PTA was 4540 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. 5. PTA Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for PTA [5] 6. MEG Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for MEG [7]