大越期货菜粕早报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound fluctuations [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main influencing factors include the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the change in domestic aquaculture demand season, and potential changes in the Sino - Canadian trade relationship [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2500 - 2560 range - bound oscillation. Factors influencing it include soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, low inventory, and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relationship [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short - term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: From October 29 to November 6, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3017 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 to 2650, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 517 to 442 [13]. - Futures and Spot Prices: From October 29 to November 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2601) increased from 2373 to 2549, and the price of the far - month contract 2605 increased from 2330 to 2416. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2650 [15]. - Warehouse Receipts: From October 28 to November 6, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4050 to 2755 [16]. - Import and Inventory: In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained low [22][24][26]. - Aquaculture Production and Prices: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, showing a bullish signal [9].