Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production schedules [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average and is affected by the off - season, resulting in less - than - expected and sluggish demand [7]. - The cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term due to the decline in crude oil prices [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3085 - 3133 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Supply Side: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 331,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. The sample enterprises' output is 556,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 608,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.05%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost Side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the decline of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - Basis: On November 6th, the spot price in Shandong is 3100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with a shift from long to short, showing a bearish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for spread trading analysis [22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in cross - commodity price analysis [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It presents the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between different production processes [42]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply of raw materials [46]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [49]. - Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt [53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which can reflect the operating efficiency of the production side [58]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the supply in the market [60]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, which are important indicators for analyzing the overall inventory situation [67]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [70]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can affect the domestic supply and demand balance [73]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: It presents the historical spread trend of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for import cost analysis [76]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which can be related to the demand for asphalt [79]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [82]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025, which can affect the demand for asphalt [85]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream construction demand [90][92]. - Asphalt Operating Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: It presents the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the production and demand situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - Operating Rate by Use: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the demand in different application scenarios [97]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: It presents the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream demand for asphalt [99][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20251107
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-07 03:11