贵金属早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the highest number of Challenger job - cuts in the US in October in over two decades, concerns in the job market rose, and the technology giants led the decline in the US stock market, causing the gold price to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 1.2 yuan/gram. With risk appetite cooling again and a slight long - term bearish trend, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - For silver, affected by the same factors as gold, the silver price fluctuated. Also, as silver was included in the US critical minerals list, tariff concerns may heat up again, providing support. The silver premium expanded to 310 yuan/gram. With risk appetite cooling again and a slight long - term bearish trend, the silver price will fluctuate [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 7.60 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.70, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1209. COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.80 per ounce. The gold price first rose and then fluctuated downward [4]. - Silver: The US 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 7.60 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.70, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1209. COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. The silver price fluctuated [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 2.3, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the gold futures warehouse receipts are 87816 kg, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 639940 kg, a daily decrease of 16230 kg (bullish); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple events are scheduled, including European Central Bank officials' speeches, the opening of the 2025 Global Computing Conference, China's October import - export and trade balance data, October foreign exchange reserves, the initial value of the third - quarter current account, speeches by US Federal Reserve officials, the Canadian October employment report, the initial value of the US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, and more [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the support for the gold price has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariffs) have improved [11]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a greater impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as global turmoil, inflation, and tariff concerns on the bullish side, and expectations of a halt to rate cuts, insufficient European fiscal expansion on the bearish side [15][16]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On November 6, 2025, the long - order volume was 162,978, an increase of 1.65% from the previous day; the short - order volume was 66,674, an increase of 1.51% from the previous day; the net position was 96,304, an increase of 1.75% from the previous day [33]. - Silver: On November 6, 2025, the long - order volume was 340,415, an increase of 2.96% from the previous day; the short - order volume was 251,107, an increase of 1.79% from the previous day; the net position was 89,308, an increase of 6.41% from the previous day [35].