《能源化工》日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].