大越期货豆粕早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts. [8][9] - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The domestic soybean will be affected by the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations and the continuous arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the document 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term. [13] - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level. Affected by the normal harvesting weather of US soybeans and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern. [13] - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal in November. The soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend and the off - season demand, and has returned to an oscillatory pattern. [13] - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by the possible weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations. [13] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. [14] - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. [14] Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation. [15] - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans. [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From October 29 to November 6, the transaction average price and volume of soybean meal fluctuated, while the transaction volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and the price of rapeseed meal gradually increased. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend. [16] - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From October 30 to November 6, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans remained relatively stable, while the spot price of soybean meal gradually increased. [18] - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From October 28 to November 6, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 increased, while the warehouse receipts of soybean meal decreased. [20] - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other data over the years. [31][32] - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2025/26, reflecting the development of the soybean industry in different regions. [33][34][38] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans. [43] - Other Data: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole; the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly; the unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level; the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly; the pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month; the pig price stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak; the proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly; the domestic pig - breeding profit improved recently. [44][46][47] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document