大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate are neutral. The supply side shows that last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% decrease from the previous week, and higher than the historical average. The production in October 2025 was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The demand side indicates that the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average, but the inventory of smelters is lower than the historical average [8][9]. - The cost situation varies. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 0.11% day - on - day, with a production profit of 419 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica increased by 0.14% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,626 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - On November 06, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,420 - 81,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% decrease from the previous week and higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% increase from the previous week [8]. - Cost side: The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate was 78,850 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease day - on - day, with a production profit of 419 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica was 82,865 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,626 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Market indicators: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is neutral; the market trend is bullish; the main positions are net short and increasing short positions; the expected price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,420 - 81,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the previous day [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different changes. The monthly production of lithium carbonate also showed an overall upward trend in some cases. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase from the previous month [18]. - Demand - side Data: The production and sales data of lithium - ion batteries, new energy vehicles, and related materials showed different trends. For example, the monthly total installation volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase from the previous month [18]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory, showed different trends. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average [9].