工业硅期货早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors, with supply-side production cuts and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. - The polysilicon market shows a continuous decline in supply and demand, with a weakening of cost support. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. - The main logic for the market is that the supply-demand imbalance caused by capacity mismatch is difficult to change, with cost increases providing some support, but the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market are negative factors [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule is expected to decrease and stay around the historical average [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, at a neutral level and a 7.44% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is generally weak [3]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, while the sample enterprise inventory and major port inventory have increased [3]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [3]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The November production schedule is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production and demand in the downstream sectors of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all decreasing. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 37,790 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,210 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical period [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has changed to long [8]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - The report provides detailed data on the price, basis, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon, as well as the cost and profit of different regions and specifications [14]. - It also shows the price trends of downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, as well as their production, inventory, and trade data [41][50][60]. Polysilicon - The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and trade data of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16]. - It also includes the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situation [64].