大越期货原油早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overnight crude oil failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined, ending the session slightly lower. Saudi Aramco's reduction of the official selling price to Asia dampened some of the market's optimistic sentiment. The impact of sanctions on Russia has begun to show, but it is weak and its sustainability remains to be seen. It is estimated that Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November will slightly decline, but still remain close to recent historical highs. In the short term, there is not enough support for a significant increase in oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: After the US imposed a new round of sanctions on major Russian oil producers, major refineries in India and China reduced their purchases, causing the trading price of Russian oil in Asia to show the largest discount to Brent crude in a year. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. The overall assessment is neutral [3] - Basis: On November 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.95 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.51 per barrel. The basis was 30.99 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3] - Inventory: For the week ending October 31, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.521 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 30 barrels. As of November 6, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.47 million barrels, which is a bearish signal [3] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3] - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions of the WTI crude oil main contract increased, and as of October 28, the long positions of the Brent crude oil main contract also increased, which is a bullish signal [3] - Expectation: Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the SC2512 contract trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - Saudi Arabia's Pricing Adjustment: Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. It also cut the prices of medium and heavy crude oils by $1.40 per barrel and the prices of ultra - light and extra - light crude oils by $1.20 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and some major OPEC+ members announced that they would suspend production increases in the first quarter to balance market share competition and potential supply gluts. London market crude oil has fallen nearly 15% this year and is currently trading below $65 [5] - US Employment Situation: Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors. The number of announced layoffs soared by 37% to 43,600 in October, and the planned layoff number in October soared by 183% to 153,074, the highest in the same period in 22 years [5] - Fed's Stance: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further interest rate cuts, and she is worried that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with current inflation [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: There are optimistic signals in Sino - US trade negotiations, the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - Bearish Factors: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6] - Market Drivers: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified in the short term, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.29%, - 0.35%, and - 1.43% respectively [7] - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.96%, - 0.29%, - 1.65%, - 0.67%, and - 1.37% respectively [9] - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending October 31. API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels [3][10][12] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249 [16] - Brent Crude Oil: As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 119,046 [18]