大越期货燃料油早报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the fuel oil market may continue its weak consolidation due to the decline in crude oil prices and insufficient support from the news. The bunker fuel market lacks positive factors, resulting in low trading enthusiasm and a weak performance of fuel oil. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2660 - 2720, and the LU2601 in the range of 3210 - 3270 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fuel oil market may continue its weak consolidation. The bunker fuel market lacks positive support, and trading enthusiasm is low. The FU2601 is expected to trade between 2660 - 2720, and the LU2601 between 3210 - 3270 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Russia has extended its fuel oil export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - Market Drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Market Structure: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level. The spot discount of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil has widened for the first time in four trading days. However, due to the weakening of the East - West arbitrage economy, the supply in December is expected to tighten, and the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported in the coming weeks [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 55 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3]. - Market Chart: The price is near the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Positions: The main position in high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing; the main position in low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents the price difference chart between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures, but no specific data analysis is provided [10]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels [8].