广发早知道：汇总版-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on November 6, 2025, with the technology sector leading the way. The market is expected to experience some short - term fluctuations but has limited downside risks. For the bond market, there are opportunities for appropriate long - positions and positive arbitrage strategies. In the precious metals market, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term oscillations are expected. Different commodities in the futures market have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions provided for each [3][5][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On November 6, the A - share market rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.97% at 4007.76 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also closed higher, and the basis discounts of the main contracts were repaired. The semiconductor industry chain rebounded strongly, while the consumer industry corrected [3][4] - News: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce held talks with the US agricultural trade delegation. Overseas, the US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection [4] - Funding: The trading volume of the A - share market increased by over 300 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to mainly observe as the market may experience a slight callback after reaching a high and is waiting to stabilize [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed lower, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose [6] - Funding: The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. However, the inter - bank liquidity remained loose [6][7] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to take appropriate long - positions in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the spot - futures strategy [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: US labor market contraction signals emerged in October, and the UK central bank paused interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. The international gold price closed at $3975.88 per ounce, down 0.07%, and the international silver price closed at $47.983 per ounce, up 0.02% [8][9][10] - Outlook: In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, the international gold price is expected to oscillate between $3900 - $4030, and the silver price between $47 - $49 [10] - Funding: ETF funds have flowed out due to the recent price fluctuations, and investors' attitudes are cautious [12] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotation: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies showed certain ranges [13] - Container Shipping Index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.92% month - on - month, while the US - West route index increased by 14.43% [13] - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different characteristics as reflected by PMI data [14] - Logic: The futures market declined, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 points [14] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to buy the December contract at low prices in the short - term [14] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 6, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased, and downstream demand showed a short - term recovery [14] - Macro: The US market liquidity tightened, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was being heard, which may affect copper prices [15] - Supply: The copper concentrate spot TC remained low. The electrolytic copper production in October decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [16] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and downstream demand showed strong resilience [16][17] - Inventory: LME, domestic social, and COMEX copper inventories all increased [17] - Logic: The copper price is expected to show an upward trend in the long - term due to supply - demand contradictions, but short - term price increases may suppress demand [18] - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [18] - Short - term View: Oscillation [18] Alumina - Spot: On November 6, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with a shrinking north - south price difference [18] - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In November, the supply is expected to remain in surplus, but the situation may improve [19] - Inventory: Alumina inventories in ports, plants, and warehouses all increased [19] - Logic: The alumina price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - View: Weakly oscillating [20] Aluminum - Spot: On November 6, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the spot premium decreased [22] - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [22] - Demand: Downstream processing industries entered the peak season, but the weekly operating rate declined [22] - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumer area inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased [23] - Logic: The price increase of the main contract was driven by overseas news, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 20500 - 21500 yuan/ton [24] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [25] - View: Wide - range oscillation [25] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 6, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [25] - Supply: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the supply of raw materials remained tight [25] - Demand: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the order volume did not increase significantly [26] - Inventory: The social inventory increased slightly, and the absolute inventory remained high [26] - Logic: The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [27] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 when the spread is above 550 [28] - View: Wide - range oscillation [28] Zinc - Spot: On November 6, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots remained stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [28] - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, and the zinc production from January to October increased. The subsequent supply increase may be limited [29] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations [30] - Inventory: Domestic social inventories decreased, while LME inventories were basically stable [30] - Logic: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but may remain range - bound. Upward or downward breakthroughs depend on demand improvement or inventory changes [31] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton [31] - Short - term View: Oscillation [31] Tin - Spot: On November 6, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was mainly for rigid demand [31] - Supply: In September, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved slightly, but the overall supply remained tight [32] - Demand and Inventory: In September, the solder operating rate increased, but the traditional consumer electronics and other fields had weak demand. The LME inventory increased, while the domestic inventory decreased [33] - Logic: The market sentiment improved, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - Near - term View: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - Spot: As of November 6, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [34] - Supply: In October, the domestic refined nickel production decreased, but the overall production remained at a high level [35] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel was weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short - term but faced challenges in the medium - term [35] - Inventory: Overseas inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [35] - Logic: The macro - environment was weak, but the cost was supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [36] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [37] - Short - term View: Range - bound oscillation [37] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 6, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable [38] - Raw Materials: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price decreased, and the chromium iron market was weak [38] - Supply: In September and October, the domestic stainless steel production increased. The supply pressure remained [39] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity declined [39] - Logic: The macro - driving force weakened, and the fundamentals were under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [40] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [41] - Short - term View: Weakly oscillating [41] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 6, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [41] - Supply: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, and last week's production also showed a slight increase [42] - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials were expected to increase [42] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased last week [43] - Logic: The price was supported by strong fundamentals in the short - term. However, the trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [45] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [46] - Short - term View: Oscillation adjustment [46] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, the basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [46] - Cost and Profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [46] - Supply: From January to September, the iron element production increased. In October and November, the molten iron production decreased, and the five major steel products' production also declined [46] - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, exports were high, and the apparent demand decreased [47] - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [47] - View: The steel market was slightly stronger, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil [48][49] Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 6, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [50] - Futures: The iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [50] - Basis: The basis of different iron ore products was provided [50] - Demand: As of November 6, the daily molten iron production decreased, and the demand for iron ore weakened [50] - Supply: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, but the port arrivals increased significantly [51] - Inventory: The port inventory increased, the daily port clearing volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [51] - View: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [51] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: As of November 6, the coking coal futures rebounded, the Shanxi coal - coke price was strong, and the Mongolian coal price was high [52] - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the production and inventory showed different trends [52][53] - Demand: The production of coke by independent coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the demand for coking coal weakened [54] - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly [55] - View: The coking coal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56] Coke - Futures and Spot: As of November 6, the coke futures rebounded. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of a further increase [57][61] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was negative [58] - Supply: The daily production of coke decreased, and the cost was supported by the rising coking coal price [59][61] - Demand: The iron water production decreased, and the steel price was weak, which suppressed the coke price increase [60][61] - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was tight [61] - View: The coke price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On November 6, the domestic soybean meal price was stable or decreased, and the rapeseed meal price increased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [63] - Fundamentals: China adjusted the tariff on US imports, and there were various news about the soybean production and trade in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [63][64] - Market Outlook: The US soybean price fell sharply. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal price was expected to be supported [64][65] Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated, and the national average price increased slightly [66] - Market Data: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October, and the profit of live pig farming decreased [66][67] - Market Outlook: The live pig price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to continue holding the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy and be cautiously bullish on the unilateral position [67] Corn - Spot Price: On November 6, the corn price in Northeast China and North China was relatively stable, and the port price was slightly weak [68] - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in northern ports and Guangdong ports showed different trends, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises also changed [68][69] - Market Outlook: The corn