《有色》日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight and the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. After the interest rate cut and tariffs are implemented, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are likely to be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [2]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Aluminum prices are expected to face a game between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the 21,500 yuan/ton pressure level can be effectively broken through. If inventory accumulates, there is a risk of price correction to the 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of rigid cost support and a tight supply - demand balance. Key factors to monitor include scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction progress [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a short squeeze in LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward momentum. The key for upward breakthrough lies in better - than - expected demand and improved non - recessionary interest rate cut expectations, while downward breakthrough may occur if refined zinc inventory accumulates [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Low - position long orders can be held, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. The follow - up focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [8]. Nickel - The macro sentiment is weak, and the cost is still supported by firm ore prices. However, the overall fundamentals are dull, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. Supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, strong fundamentals provide support for prices. However, the trading logic has shifted, and the current news and capital drivers are stronger than the fundamentals and valuation logic. Prices are expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.77% to 85,995 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also showed certain changes [2]. - Fundamental Data: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - Price and Basis: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.28% to 21,360 yuan/ton. Alumina prices showed regional differences, with northern prices stabilizing and southern prices falling [4]. - Fundamental Data: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed [5]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 0.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [5]. Zinc - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [7]. - Fundamental Data: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [7]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.53% to 282,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 39.23% [8]. - Fundamental Data: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [8]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 120,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [10]. - Supply and Inventory: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous value [10]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 12.64% [12]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.12% to 80,400 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread and other indicators changed [14]. - Fundamental Data: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [14].