建信期货集运指数日报-20251107

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Summary - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Although actual demand may not support a large price increase, the bottom of container shipping rates within the year may have appeared, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to be difficult to resolve within the year, and the Red Sea may still be difficult to resume shipping in the short term [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: As the year - end peak season and long - term contract season approach, shipping companies continue to raise quotes for November and December, but the increase is lower than before. The SCFIS index has declined again, and it is difficult for price increases to fully materialize. The actual demand may not support large price increases, but the bottom of container shipping rates within the year may have appeared. The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and difficult to resolve, and the Red Sea may not resume shipping in the short term [8] - Operation Suggestions: Continue to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions in Late October: From October 27 to 31, the China export container shipping market was good, with stable overall transport demand. Most route market freight rates continued to rise, driving the comprehensive index up. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on October 31 was 1550.70 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9] - European Routes: In October, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, better than market expectations. The market freight rate continued to rise, and on October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1344 US dollars/TEU, up 7.9% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was basically the same as that of European routes, and the spot booking price continued to rise. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 1983 US dollars/TEU, up 12.4% from the previous period [9] - Military News in the Middle East: Israel carried out military operations in Lebanon and Gaza, and the situation in the region remained tense [10] - Sino - US Trade Consensus: After the talks between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, South Korea, the two sides reached a new trade consensus. China will suspend additional export controls on rare earths and other key minerals, terminate antitrust and anti - dumping investigations against US semiconductor supply chain - related enterprises, and the US will take corresponding measures [10][11] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | Price on 2025/11/3 | Price on 2025/10/27 | Change | Month - on - Month (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1208.71 | 1312.71 | - 104 | - 7.9% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1267.15 | 1107.32 | 159.83 | 14.4% | [13] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1,923.4 | 1,899.0 | 1,848.2 | 1,845.1 | - 75.2 | - 3.91 | 35518 | 28412 | - 5660 | | EC2602 | 1,631.4 | 1,622.0 | 1,601.0 | 1,597.1 | - 30.4 | - 1.86 | 9591 | 22625 | 273 | | EC2604 | 1,195.8 | 1,194.0 | 1,178.0 | 1,176.4 | - 17.8 | - 1.49 | 2051 | 14208 | - 329 | | EC2606 | 1,419.8 | 1,428.8 | 1,414.2 | 1,404.7 | - 5.6 | - 0.39 | 132 | 1455 | - 9 | | EC2608 | 1,498.1 | 1,490.1 | 1,484.0 | 1,497.0 | - 14.1 | - 0.94 | 120 | 1306 | - 31 | | EC2610 | 1,140.0 | 1,140.0 | 1,140.0 | 1,138.6 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 269 | 1432 | 156 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report also provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [13][17][19]