建信期货国债日报-20251107

1. Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds & Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Core View - The stock - bond seesaw continues, with the strengthening of the A - share market suppressing the bond market, and most treasury bond futures falling. The yields of major on - the - run interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market have fully rebounded. The money market at the beginning of the month is stable and loose. Considering the economic fundamentals and policies, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities if there is market over - adjustment [8][9][10][11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance - Stock - bond seesaw: The strengthening of the A - share market suppresses the bond market, and most treasury bond futures decline [8] - Interest rate bonds: The yields of major on - the - run interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market have fully rebounded. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8010%, up 0.85bp [9] - Money market: At the beginning of the month, the money market is stable and loose. There was 342.6 billion yuan of maturity in the open market today, and the central bank injected 92.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index is stable, with the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuating narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate dropping slightly by 1.25bp to 1.4253%, the medium - and long - term funds being stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising slightly by 1bp to 1.64% [10] - Conclusion - Economic fundamentals: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. Currently, exports are the main support, but the export leading indicators in October have significantly weakened, and the bond market may face pressure from the decline in exports and weak domestic demand. Market expectations of monetary easing may heat up again [11] - Policy: The current combination of loose monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is being intensified. The resumption of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. Based on past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policy may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12] - Suggestion: The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there is market over - adjustment due to phased disturbances, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [12] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank's release of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market is 2 billion yuan, indicating that the treasury bond trading operation suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. The central bank also announced a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5, which is an equal - amount roll - over considering the maturity amount in the same month. Market institutions generally expect the central bank to conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation in November, and are optimistic about the continued net injection of outright reverse repurchases in that month [13] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right way. The China - EU export control dialogue and consultation were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on November 6, including contract information such as previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for multiple contracts [6] - Money Market: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repo interest rate change [29][31] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]