大越期货甲醇早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid plant has low operating rates, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has shut down for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, and the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the bearish sentiment of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the operating rates of coastal MTO plants. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Inland and port methanol markets face different supply - demand situations. Inland has demand - side pressures, while ports are affected by high supply expectations and inventories. The overall market is expected to be weak, but the decline may be limited due to price support [4]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2115 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish Factors: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there are expected to be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE has significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region remains unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, the CFR price at the main port in China has decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 247 US dollars/ton, and the import cost has decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price has decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 2125 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants has decreased by 305 to 10854 [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis has increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, and the import spread has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 0.53 tons to 78.18 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 1.84 tons to 50.11 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others, with different maintenance start and end dates and varying impacts on production [57]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [58]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are also under maintenance or have production adjustments. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the restart time is expected to be 45 days later [59].