集运早报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Driven by positive factors such as long - term contract signing from November to December, but the valuation is not low. The market will follow the spot market, and it is recommended to adopt a dip - buying strategy overall [3] - The 12 - contract has multiple price increase announcements in the future [3] - The valuation of the 02 - contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty. It is expected to follow the 12 - contract in the next month, and a dip - buying strategy is also recommended [3] - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract. It maintains a narrow - range oscillation in the current peak - season logic. Given greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of navigation, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1848.2 yesterday, down 5.03%, with a trading volume of 35,518 and an open interest of 28,412, a decrease of 5,660 [2] - EC2602 closed at 1601.0, down 3.09%; EC2604 closed at 1178.0, down 1.80%; EC2606 closed at 1414.2, down 0.83%; EC2608 closed at 1484.0, down 0.88%; EC2610 closed at 1140.0, down 0.25% [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 670.2, a day - on - day decrease of 76.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 6.4; EC2512 - 2602 was 247.2, a day - on - day decrease of 46.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 17.8; EC2502 - 2604 was 423.0, a day - on - day decrease of 29.4 and a week - on - week increase of 11.4 [2] Spot Market (European Line) - As of November 3, 2025, the SCEIS was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the SCFI was 1344 dollars/TEU, up 7.87% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1323.81 points, up 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI was 965.62 points, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream is booking space for early November (week 45 - 46). The cargo - booking for week 45 is completed, and each shipping company can fill up; the situation in week 46 in the PA route has slightly improved [3] - In the first half of November, the PA route had the largest price cut, to 1700 - 1900 dollars, GEMINI dropped to 2100 - 2200 dollars, and OA dropped to 2250 dollars, with an average of about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [3] - In the second half of November, shipping companies mostly announced price increases to 2500 - 3100 dollars. MSK quoted 2250 dollars [3] - On Tuesday, MSC and HPL announced price increases for the second half of November to 3000 and 3100 dollars/FEU respectively [3] - On Wednesday, MSK opened the booking for the second half of November at 2250 (+50) dollars/FEU, lower than the previous market rumor/expectation of 2400 - 2500 dollars; MSK announced a price increase for December, with the European line rising to 3200 dollars; MSC dropped to 2365 dollars [3] - On Thursday, ONE opened the booking at 2600 dollars, and YML at 2550 dollars [4] Related News - On November 5, the Israeli Defense Minister said that the Israeli army would unrestrictedly destroy Hamas tunnels and armed personnel in the Gaza - controlled area [5] - On November 6, the Israeli army said it carried out an air strike in southern Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah member [5]