建信期货铁矿石日评-20251107

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of downstream steel enterprises' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear mainline logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On November 6, the main quotes of major iron ore external markets remained flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were mainly flat compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has enlarged since yesterday's death - cross [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly increased after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 109.784 billion tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, the shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrivals in November are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea by Rio Tinto is expected to be in November, with a relatively low short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but the price of far - month iron ore contracts may be suppressed under the expectation of increased supply. - In terms of demand, the current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, remaining below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, and the recent decline has been significant, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. For the five major steel products, both production and demand have declined. Considering the gradually cooling weather, the demand for construction steel is expected to be further suppressed. - In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase month - on - month and a 35.9% decrease year - on - year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease month - on - month and an 18.5% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, major port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dredging volume, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly production of five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26]