生猪市场周报：基本面偏弱，限制价格走势-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of the pig market is still loose, which restricts price movements. When prices fall to a low level, the supply - demand game intensifies, causing price fluctuations. It is expected that prices will adjust weakly at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct rolling operations, and pay attention to setting stop - losses [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Pig prices fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 rose 0.42% weekly [7] - Market Outlook: On the supply side, large - scale farms are expected to resume slaughter to meet the annual slaughter plan, but price drops may lead to some small - scale farmers' reluctance to sell, slightly reducing the pressure. Second - fattening participants are currently cautious. On the demand side, due to temperature fluctuations, the slaughterhouse's operating rate declined last week, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand. Overall, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are expected to adjust weakly at a low level [7] 3.2. Futures Market Situation - Price Movement: Futures prices rose slightly this week, with the main contract 2601 rising 0.42% weekly [7][11] - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 1662 lots to 31505 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 116 from the previous week [17] - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 400, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 140 [23] 3.3. Spot Market Situation - Base Difference: This week, the base difference of the November contract was - 200 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was 135 yuan/ton [28] - Spot Price: The national average pig price was 11.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.62 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.48 yuan/kg from last week [37] - Pork and Sow Prices: In the week of October 30, the national average pork price was 23.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [42] - Pig - Grain Ratio: As of the week of October 29, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.54, an increase of 0.29 from the previous week [46] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Sow Inventory: In the third quarter of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 tons (0.2%) from the previous quarter and a 0.7% year - on - year decrease. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.83% year - on - year, while that in 85 small - scale farms decreased by 0.14% month - on - month and increased by 0.89% year - on - year [51] - Pig Inventory: In the third quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 2.9% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.3% year - on - year increase. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 5.16% year - on - year, and that in 85 small - scale farms increased by 1.84% month - on - month and 6.45% year - on - year [55] - Slaughter Volume and Weight: In October, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.4395 million, a 11.96% increase from the previous month and a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The slaughter volume of 85 small - scale farms was 0.5258 million, a 9.48% increase from the previous month and a 27.06% year - on - year increase. The average slaughter weight of national ternary pigs this week was 123.25 kg, an increase of 0.01 kg from last week [60] 3.5. Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of November 7, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 175.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 4.18 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 89.21 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.12 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.74 yuan/head [63] - Pork Imports: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 1.25% year - on - year decrease [69] - Substitute Products: As of the week of November 7, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.8 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of November 6, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.69 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [74] - Feed Situation: As of November 7, the spot price of soybean meal was 3097.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2238.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 898.59. The price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, an increase of 2.015 million tons from the previous month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [79][82][88] - CPI: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [92] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Slaughter and Inventory: In the 45th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 33.47%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points from last week and a 5.28 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The frozen - product storage rate was 18.24%, a slight increase of 0.02% from last week [95] - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. In September 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [100] 3.7. Pig - Related Stocks - The document mentions the stock trends of Muyuan and Wens, but specific data is not provided [101]