碳酸锂市场周报：需求释放产业降库，锂价或将有所支撑-20251107

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a weekly oscillatory upward trend, with a gain of +1.88% and an amplitude of 6.59%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,300 yuan/ton [5]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of stable and slight increase in supply and rapid release of demand, with a slight reduction in industry inventory. The supply of lithium carbonate in China remains stable with a slight increase, while the demand from the power and energy storage sectors continues to grow [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an oscillatory upward trend on the weekly line, with a closing price of 82,300 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroeconomic Situation: Brazil has become a new frontier for China's electric vehicle boom. In 2024, Brazil imported about 138,000 pure - electric and hybrid vehicles from China, nearly 100,000 more than the previous year [5]. - Fundamentals: There is still uncertainty in domestic lithium mines. Overseas mines are still strongly holding up prices, and lithium ore prices have only slightly weakened. Lithium salt plants maintain a high operating rate, and the supply of lithium carbonate remains stable with a slight increase. The downstream material processing is in the peak consumption season, and the demand for lithium carbonate in the power and energy storage sectors is growing [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 82,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,520 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,840 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 660 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 1,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,670 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Spodumene: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $970/ton, a weekly decrease of $15/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1219, a weekly increase of 0.16% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of lithiophilite was 8,605 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decline of 9.07%. The monthly output was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, an increase of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of November 7, 2025, the average price was 121,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25% [34]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,750 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, an increase of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [37]. - Ternary Materials: As of September 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [42]. - Lithium Manganate: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decline of 5.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 33,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [47]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, an increase of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23% [50]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly production was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%, and the sales volume was 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44% [52][57]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is 0, and there is no arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [60].