瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has boosted domestic urea production. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise's plant will be shut down, and 3 - 5 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased production is high. [6] - Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have appropriately reduced prices for transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has recovered due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased moderately. However, considering new orders, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. [6] - This week, urea enterprise inventories increased slightly. Agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, while industrial and reserve demand is increasing moderately. Some urea enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, and in a few regions, shipments are blocked due to environmental protection warnings, leading to an increase in enterprise inventories. In the short term, urea enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate. [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Trend: The domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range this week, with the average price in Shandong down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - Supply: Production is likely to increase next week due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and considering potential malfunctions. [6] - Demand: Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizers has increased moderately but may decline next week. [6] - Inventory: Enterprise inventories increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate in the short term. [6] - Strategy: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 2.58% this week [9]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of November 7, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 67 [13]. - Position Analysis: No specific information on position analysis was summarized from the text. - Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, there were 4585 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 4585 from last week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of November 6, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton (down 20), and in Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton (down 20) [25]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of November 6, the FOB China price of urea was 377.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars/ton from last week [29]. - Basis: As of November 6, the urea basis was - 64 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - Coal Price: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - Natural Gas Price: As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.35 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of November 6, China's urea production was 135.45 tons, up 3.92 tons (2.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% from the previous period [39]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the port sample inventory was 7.9 tons, down 3.1 tons (28.18% week - on - week); as of November 5, the total enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, up 2.38 tons (1.53% week - on - week) [43]. - Export: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, up 72.12% month - on - month, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, up 93.01% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream Market - Compound Fertilizer: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04%, stable week - on - week, and is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week [49]. - Melamine: As of November 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.20%, up 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].