Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped sharply and then rebounded slightly, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 800 yuan/ton in total. The price of raw material butadiene dropped more than expected due to the dual negative impacts of the expected increase in domestic supply and the continuous decline in foreign market negotiation prices, leading to a significant increase in market bearish sentiment [8]. - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the supply of raw material butadiene is sufficient and the negotiation price has been falling, continuously dragging down the cost side. Downstream buyers are bargaining, causing the negotiation price of private resources to drop significantly. Some production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory have decreased. Next week, some plants will restart, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in future domestic supply of the raw material, the cost side of cis - butadiene remains weak, and the situation of downstream terminal buyers firmly bargaining is difficult to change. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order demands. It is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review and outlook: As described in the core viewpoints above [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.41% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 0 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 7, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,990 tons, unchanged from last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price: As of November 6, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 6, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of November 7, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.32%, an increase of 2.32% from last week; the port inventory was 29,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [34]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month. As of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.85%, a decrease of 1.1% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of November 6, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 29,290 tons, a decrease of 1,590 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 25,770 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,520 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week [45]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: As of November 6, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The production scheduling of maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, and most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably [48]. - Export demand: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [51].
合成橡胶市场周报-20251107
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-07 09:52