鸡蛋市场周报：老鸡淘汰量增加，期价继续震荡回升-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. High production capacity pressure remains, which may limit the rebound space, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [6]. - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. However, the slight rebound in the spot price of eggs may reduce the sentiment for culling old hens again. The inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and high - capacity pressure is still the main concern of the market [6]. - Short - term participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, eggs oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased. But the slight rise in egg spot prices may reduce the culling sentiment. The high inventory of laying hens in production is still a major concern, and high - capacity pressure may limit the rebound space of the futures price [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Participate in the short - term and focus on the number of old hens being culled [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The 12 - contract of egg futures oscillated and closed higher. The position was 148,243 lots, a decrease of 28,338 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7,153, compared with - 8,860 last week, and the net short position slightly decreased [12]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 6 [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 144 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 142 yuan per ton [22]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 97 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - Related Product Spot Prices: As of November 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.06 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.74 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3. Industry Situation - Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - Culling Index and Age: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,236.47 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,040 yuan per ton [47]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.42 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens: As of October 31, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 8.22 yuan per kilogram [55]. - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [61].