贵金属市场周报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued its wide - range oscillation this week due to complex global macro - situations such as easing tariff tensions, ongoing US government shutdown, and weakened short - term expectations of Fed rate cuts. The US government shutdown provides bottom - line support for gold prices, but the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path and the potential end of the government shutdown may suppress the upward trend of gold prices. Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading intervals are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Situation: The precious metals market continued to oscillate widely. The US government shutdown reached a record 38 days, providing support for gold prices. The overall PMI was dragged down by the manufacturing industry, the labor market was weakening, and the Fed's future rate - cut path was uncertain, which potentially suppressed the upward movement of gold prices. The high - level decline of the US dollar provided potential support for gold prices [8] - Market Outlook: Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, but the potential end of the US government shutdown may suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. Attention should be paid to the US October CPI data [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: COMEX silver rose 0.63% to $48.55 per ounce, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract rose 0.38% to 11484 yuan/kg. COMEX gold rose 0.06% to $4017.5 per ounce, while the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 921.26 yuan/gram [11] - ETF Holdings: As of November 6, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings remained basically the same as last week, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.5% [16] - COMEX Positions: Due to the US government shutdown, COMEX position data for precious metals was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43%, and net positions increased by 0.13%. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75%, and net positions increased by 1.43% [17][21] - Basis: The basis of Shanghai gold strengthened, while that of silver weakened. As of November 6, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.80 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 93 yuan/kg [22][24] - Inventory: COMEX precious metals inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory increased. As of November 6, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.04%, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2%, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1% [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - Imports: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% month - on - month, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% month - on - month [37] - Downstream Demand: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [39][42] - Supply and Demand Balance: The silver market was in a tight - balance state. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand increased by 4% year - on - year, coin and net bar demand decreased by 22% year - on - year, and ETF net investment demand changed from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. Total demand decreased by 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [48][52] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - Price: Affected by the gold tax policy, the prices of gold jewelry increased. As of November 6, 2025, the gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1256 yuan/gram, 1259 yuan/gram, and 1261 yuan/gram respectively. The Chinese gold recycling price was 910.80 yuan/gram, a 0.80% decrease from the previous period [54][58] - Demand: According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly in Q3 2025. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a cumulative total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options (Macroeconomic Data) - Dollar and Treasury Yields: The US dollar index oscillated higher and then declined from its high this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield followed the trend of the US dollar [64] - Yield Spread and Volatility: The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, and the CBOE gold volatility continued to decline [68] - Inflation - Balanced Interest Rate: The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [71] - Central Bank Gold Purchases: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchases from the beginning of the year to now reached 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [75][77]