Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint of the Report The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as inventory decline and the opening of export windows. It is recommended to adopt a long - position trading strategy [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai zinc continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63% and an amplitude of 1.97%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,720 yuan/ton [5] - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the US private data shows a negative non - farm payroll in October, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, and smelter profits have shrunk. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. Demand - side traditional peak - season effects are weak, and downstream demand recovery is insufficient. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates a strong long - position atmosphere [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a long - position trading strategy [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price and Ratio: The Shanghai zinc futures price rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the Shanghai zinc closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.63% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the London zinc closing price was 3,051 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton or 0.21% from October 31 [8] - Net Positions and Open Interest: The top 20 net positions in Shanghai zinc increased. As of November 7, 2025, the top 20 net positions were 16,709 lots, an increase of 6,792 lots from October 31. The open interest was 226,883 lots, an increase of 15,774 lots or 7.47% from October 31 [11] - Price Spreads: The zinc - aluminum price spread remained stable, and the zinc - lead price spread rebounded. As of November 7, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from October 31. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from October 31 [16] - Spot Premiums: The domestic spot premium rebounded, and the LME zinc premium was at a high level. As of November 7, 2025, the 0 zinc ingot spot price was 22,650 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton or 1.48% from October 31. The spot discount was 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 104.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.73 US dollars/ton from October 30 [22] - Inventory: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or 2.29% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, a decrease of 3,208 tons or 3.1% from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 161,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons or 0.98% from October 30 [25] 3. Industry Situation - Upstream: Zinc ore production and imports increased. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In September 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 505,394.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.61% and a year - on - year increase of 25.18% [31] - Supply Side: - Global Supply Shortage: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc supply was in shortage. In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, an increase of 94,600 tons or 8.35% year - on - year. Consumption was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 1,400 tons or 0.12% year - on - year. There was a surplus of 47,900 tons, compared with a deficit of 45,300 tons in the same period last year [36] - High Production: In September 2025, China's zinc production was 625,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 5.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [40] - Export Window Open: In September 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 22,677.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.05%. The export volume was 2,477.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 158.25% [43] - Downstream: - Galvanized Sheets: From January to September 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. In September 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 37,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.69%. The export volume was 361,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.29% [46][47] - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.96%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.229864 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 988.438 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [52][53] - Infrastructure: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27 from the previous month and an increase of 0.47 from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year [58] - Home Appliances: In September 2025, refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 80.3523 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In September 2025, air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 216.5707 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [60] - Automobiles: In September 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,226,375 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The production volume was 3,275,802 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% [64]
沪锌市场周报：库存下降出口打开预计锌价震荡偏强-20251107
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-07 10:34