苹果市场周报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.14%. The new - season late Fuji ground trading is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide is 6.9842 billion tons, 1.1502 billion tons lower than the same period last year. The current inventory level of late Fuji is relatively low in recent years, and price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.14% [4][9]. - Market Outlook: New - season late Fuji ground trading is winding up, mainly in Shandong and Shanxi. As of November 5, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory is 6.9842 billion tons, lower than last year. Shandong has a 41.03% storage capacity ratio, down 13.42% year - on - year, and Shaanxi has a 56.81% ratio, down 10.77% year - on - year. Shandong's new - season late - maturing Fuji shows a trend of reduced yield and quality. Shaanxi's inventory is nearing completion, and the peak inventory is expected next week. The current late - Fuji inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and price fluctuations have increased [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is advisable to wait and see for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. - Future Trading Tips: Monitor the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract fell by about 2.14% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 7330 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][15]. - Spot Market: As of November 7, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.30 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply Side: As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 6.9842 billion tons, 1.1502 billion tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 41.03%, down 13.42% year - on - year, and in Shaanxi was 56.81%, down 10.77% year - on - year [25]. - Demand Side - Wholesale Market Arrival: As of November 6, the average daily early - morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) [29]. - Wholesale Price: As of October 31, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.46 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07 yuan per kilogram from the previous week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.15 yuan per kilogram, down 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week [33]. - Substitute Situation: As of October 31, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous week [37]. - Export Volume: In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in a chart, but specific data is not described in text [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Stock Market - Honghui Fruit & Vegetable: A chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable, but no specific analysis is provided [44].