棉花（纱）市场周报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.11%. The price of the December contract of US cotton also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 1.42%. The price of the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by about 0.13% [6][14][23]. - In the US cotton - growing areas, limited rainfall is beneficial for harvesting. The release of the monthly supply - demand report next week may guide the market. In the domestic market, the picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has significantly increased. The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, but new orders are still limited [6]. - Overall, the pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton - textile exports, which also provides some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly this week [6]. - Market Outlook: In the US, limited rainfall in cotton - growing areas is good for harvesting. In China, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang have accelerated, and the commercial inventory is rising. The demand side indicates that the spinning profit has improved slightly, but new orders are limited. The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton and tariff reduction for exports provide support [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: For the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton, short - term observation is recommended [7]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to the price change of foreign cotton, demand, and inventory [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.42% [14]. - Futures Market: The price of the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures also declined. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 113,261 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were - 91 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 3,013 sheets, and those of cotton yarn futures were 6 sheets [23][28][30]. - Spot Market: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.21 yuan/500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.5 yuan/500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,520 yuan/ton [42][45][57]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of November 6, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week; the quota price was 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan/ton from last week. The profit estimates of imported cotton with sliding - duty and quota were 724 yuan/ton and 1,624 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from last week [61][64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply Side: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons from the previous month. The in - stock industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year [69][76]. - Mid - end Industry: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [79]. - Terminal Consumption: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90% [84][88]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - related Market - Options Market: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week, but no specific data is summarized in the text [89]. - Stock Market: There is a chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no specific analysis is provided [92].