白糖市场周报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.47%. Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. From the 2025/26 sugar season (April - March of the following year) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 21.9568 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. With strong production increase expectations in India and Thailand, the rebound of the raw sugar price is weak. China's sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas and policies. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the new sugar season is expected to start in mid - to late November, providing some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks driving factors, and the price will remain low in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.47% [5]. - Market Outlook: Brazil's sugar exports in October increased year - on - year, but the current sugar season is ending, and exports are expected to decline seasonally. With strong production increase expectations in India and Thailand, the raw sugar price rebounds weakly. China's market is less affected by the decline. Guangxi sugar mills are reducing inventory, and the new sugar season may start late, providing sales opportunities for old sugar. The market lacks driving factors, and the price will be low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - Future Concerns: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.17 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.72 cents per pound from last week [15]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.47%. The latest price was 5457 yuan, up 17 yuan or 0.31%. The trading volume was 140,737 lots, and the open interest was 371,961 lots, a decrease of 486 lots [17]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Top 20 Positions: This week, the net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 58,458 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 7,382 [23]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Contract Spread: This week, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 60 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 303 yuan per ton [27]. - Spot Market Price: As of November 7, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,760 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,650 yuan per ton [31]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 541 yuan per ton, an increase of 32 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,530 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 456 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Production: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [42]. - Supply - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [45]. - Supply - Import Volume: In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a 27.78% year - on - year increase and a decrease of 280,000 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a 7.89% year - on - year increase [49]. - Demand - Sales Rate: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar season had all stopped production. The national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [55]. - Demand - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production: In September 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 539,100 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year decrease [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - Option Market: The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided in the text [61]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].