红枣市场周报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the buyer's purchasing enthusiasm and the change in the purchasing structure [9][10][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy suggestion: Short - term bearish on the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [9]. - Future trading reminders: Monitor spot prices and the consumer side. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants for new - season raw materials has weakened, and attention should be paid to changes in the purchasing enthusiasm and structure of buyers [10]. - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47% [10][15]. - Market outlook: In the Xinjiang main producing area, the procurement of new - season jujubes in areas such as Hotan has ended, and the harvesting progress in areas such as Alar and Aksu is 30% - 40%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. The prices in the sales area have been slightly adjusted downwards, and downstream customers are mostly on the sidelines and purchase as needed [10][44]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47% [15]. - Top 20 positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures is - 11282 lots [18]. - Warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts is 0 [22]. - Futures spread: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2601 contract and the 2605 contract is - 110 yuan/ton [25]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures is 590 yuan/ton [29]. - Purchase price in the main producing area: As of November 7, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu is 6.60 yuan/kg, in Alar is 6.90 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 7.35 yuan/kg [32]. - Spot price of first - grade jujubes: As of November 7, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 4.5 yuan/jin, and in Henan is 4.65 yuan/jin [36]. - Spot price of special - grade jujubes: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 10.18 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan is 10.3 yuan/kg [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35% [44]. - Supply side - Production decline possibility: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [48]. - Demand side - Export volume: In September 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2283671 kg, with an export value of 36347933 yuan and an average export price of 15916.449 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.43% month - on - month and 13.54% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 23548402 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.12% [50]. - Demand side - BOCE Xinjiang jujube trading: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had a small amount of orders [55]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for jujubes this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [56]. - Stock market - Haoxiangni: A chart of Haoxiangni's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [58].