贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Trend: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - Factor Analysis: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - Inventory Situation: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - Import and Processing: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - Warehouse Receipt and Inventory: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - Inventory Situation: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - Inventory Situation: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - Futures Data: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - Spot Data: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - Downstream Situation: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - Inventory Situation: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures Data: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - Inventory Situation: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - Polysilicon and Downstream Products: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - Production and Inventory: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].