Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - Domestic Spot Changes: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - Palm Oil Dynamics: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - CFTC Positions: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - Import Supply: Pork Imports: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Corn Supply: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - Domestic Substitutes: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - Import Substitute Grains: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - Feed Demand: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - Deep - Processing Demand: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - Soybean Planting: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - US Soybean Exports: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - Basis and Inter - Month Spread: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - Cost, Income and Breeding Profit: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].
建信期货农产品周度报告-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-07 11:11