Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - Fundamental Changes: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - Fundamental Changes: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - Main Driving Forces: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - Main Driving Forces: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - Market Conditions: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - Futures Review and Outlook: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - Fundamental Overview: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - Market Review and Outlook: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - Market Review and Outlook: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - Fundamental Changes: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]
建信期货能源化工周报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-07 11:11