黑色产业链日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - Prices and Spreads: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - Fundamentals: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices and Spreads: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - Fundamentals: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - Silicon Manganese: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - Fundamentals: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - Prices and Spreads: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - Fundamentals: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].