东亚期货软商品日报-20251107

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Authors: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Internationally, the expected high yields in Brazil, India, and Thailand have strengthened the global sugar supply surplus, with raw sugar rebounding weakly after hitting a five - year low; domestically, Guangxi sugar mills are actively reducing inventory for the new crushing season, with some spot prices rising, but consumption support is insufficient. Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi, bringing uncertainty to the new - season yield, and the expected concentrated arrival of imported sugar in the second half of the year still suppresses the market, with domestic futures prices slowly moving down to test the 5400 yuan/ton support level [3] Price and Spread - On November 7, 2025, SR01 closed at 5457 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.47%; SR03 closed at 5420 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.13% and a weekly decrease of 0.37%; SR05 closed at 5397 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.30%, etc. [4] - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on November 6, 2025 was 302 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan and a weekly increase of 24 yuan; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 212 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan and a weekly decrease of 36 yuan [8] Import Price - On November 7, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3967 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a weekly decrease of 6 yuan; the out - of - quota price was 5022 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 19 yuan and a weekly decrease of 8 yuan. The in - quota price of Thai sugar imports was 4023 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a weekly decrease of 9 yuan; the out - of - quota price was 5095 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 19 yuan and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan [11] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The output in southern Xinjiang in the new season is lower than expected, and the purchase price of new cotton is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new - cotton output is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so there is insufficient momentum for cotton prices to rise further. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13600 - 13800 and the subsequent new - season output determination [13] Price and Spread - On November 7, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13580 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan and a decrease of 0.18%; cotton 05 closed at 13590 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan and a decrease of 0.18%; cotton 09 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a decrease of 0.29%. The cotton basis was 1279 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 64 yuan [14] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, with trading concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, the striped apples are on the market, and farmers are selling at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, Gansu's warehousing is basically completed, Shaanxi's is nearing completion, and in Qixia's western townships in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apple supplies are still being warehoused [17] Price Change - On November 7, 2025, AP01 closed at 9040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a weekly decrease of 2.14%; AP03 closed at 9024 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.14% and a weekly decrease of 2.4%; AP04 closed at 9088 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly decrease of 3.65%, etc. [18] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. The current new - season yield is the core point of market game. Currently, there is a yield reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the extent is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of yield are prone to偏差. In the short term, red date prices fluctuate greatly due to capital game, but with the start of the purchase season under the condition of yield reduction, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new red dates [23]