宏观贵金属周报：美联储暗示或再次暂停降息-20251107

Report Information - Report Type: Macro Precious Metals Weekly Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Fed may pause rate cuts again, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - The precious metals intermediate bull market that started in March 2024 has not ended. London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position trading strategy [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Review 1.1 Economy - Domestic: In October 2025, China's total exports shrank by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 9.4 percentage points compared to September. Total imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 6.4 percentage points. From January to October, China's cumulative total exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 0.8 percentage points; cumulative total imports shrank by 0.9% year - on - year, with the shrinkage degree narrowing by 0.2 percentage points; the cumulative trade surplus was $964.82 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports to the US shrank by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export share decreased from 14.7% in 2024 to 11.4%; exports to the EU increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 14.4% to 14.9%; exports to ASEAN increased by 14.5% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 16.4% to 17.5% [5]. - International: Due to the continued shutdown of the US federal government, official statistical data has been missing since October. In October, ADP private non - farm payrolls increased by 42,000, better than the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a preliminary reversal of the employment contraction in the past two months, but the overall weakness of the job market has not been fundamentally improved. Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that US companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest in more than 20 years, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, and the scale of corporate recruitment plans also dropped to the lowest level in the same period since 2011 [7]. 1.2 Focus - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated on November 6 that the US real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 would grow at an annualized rate of 4% quarter - on - quarter. The Fed may pause rate cuts again soon after restarting the rate - cut process, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - After the Fed's October meeting, many officials expressed their views on monetary policy. The threshold for the Fed to cut rates again at the December 9 - 10 meeting is rising. On November 7, the market's probability of the Fed cutting rates by 75BP within the year was 61.8%, a slight decline of 1 percentage point from the previous week [9][11]. - On November 5, the US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection. Trump said that if he loses the lawsuit, he will consider changing the legal basis to maintain his tariff measures, but these measures will take a long time to implement [12]. - On November 5, Russian President Putin ordered the government to draft a nuclear weapons test plan. Russia's Defense Minister reported that preparations for a full - scale nuclear test should be made immediately [13]. 1.3 Policy - On October 29, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the gold tax policy, aiming to regulate the gold market, expand tax sources, and suppress the boom in private gold investment. It is expected to have an impact on China's private physical gold investment demand, but it has little impact on gold prices [14]. 2. Precious Metals Market Analysis 2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure, with short - and medium - term resistance levels at 7.06 and 6.97 respectively [24]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8 - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [27]. 2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,040.4 tons, 21.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,114 tons, 13.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024 [28]. 2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system continue to push up the volatility center of gold prices. In the medium - term, the risk of stagflation in the US and global economic recession is rising, which makes gold prices stronger [31]. - In the short - term, gold prices soared to a record high in mid - October but then significantly corrected. The internal adjustment risk of gold and silver prices has been partially released. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to go long again [33][35]. 2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai on Friday was 82.3 and 80.2 respectively. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive; the negative correlation between gold and the real US Treasury yield has weakened; the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened; and the positive correlation between gold and silver remains strong [37].