金融期货周报-20251107

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing external environment and new policy expectations from the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the short - term, the index may oscillate around the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. A dumbbell strategy with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 is recommended [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. It is recommended to seize allocation opportunities when there is market over - adjustment [87]. - For shipping indexes, although the actual demand may not support large price increases, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108]. Summary by Section Stock Index Market Review - The A - share market has shown a pattern of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 3 - 7, the A - share market rose with reduced volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.62%, and large - cap blue - chip stocks performed better. Futures were weaker than the spot index [7][8]. - Looking ahead, concerns about liquidity in the US market and high expectations for Sino - US tariff negotiations have led to a weakening market after the positive news was released. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in September faced more pressure, and the export data in October showed a downward trend. Although the margin trading balance provided support, the participation of retail investors was not high. The overall A - share trading volume returned to 2 trillion yuan, and its sustainable growth needs attention [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - Stock index trading volume decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 1.13, 0.71, 0.79, and 0.46 million lots respectively compared with last week. The positions showed a differentiated trend. IF and IM positions increased, while IH and IC positions decreased [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis showed a differentiated trend. The basis of CSI 300 and CSI 500 widened, while that of SSE 50 changed from premium to discount, and the basis of CSI 1000 narrowed. The annualized basis rate of each index decreased. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IC, and IM widened, while that of IH narrowed. The spread between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of all varieties widened. Large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][26][32]. Industry Sector Overview - In the CSI 300, the energy, industrial, and financial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical, optional consumer, and information sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the energy, public utilities, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the real estate, pharmaceutical, and information sectors led the losses. Among the first - level industries, the power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology sectors led the losses [33][35]. Valuation Comparison - As of November 7, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.3295, 11.9766, 33.464, and 47.8124 times respectively, and they were at the 88.07%, 91.32%, 79.72%, and 77.08% percentile levels in the past decade [38]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The central bank's bond - buying was slightly lower than expected, and the warming of the A - share market suppressed the bond market. The performance of long - term futures was slightly stronger than that of spot bonds, while the opposite was true for short - term bonds. There is a certain positive arbitrage space for each variety's main contract, and there is a large reverse arbitrage space for non - CTD bonds of 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. The basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high and has the motivation to converge. The spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is expected to continue to narrow during the position - shifting process. A flattening strategy is recommended [42][44][51]. - Bond Spot Market: Most of the spot yields of treasury bonds increased this week, with a larger increase at the short end. The yield of US Treasury bonds first decreased and then increased [65]. - Funding Situation: At the beginning of the month, there was a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank conducted an equal - amount renewal of the 3 - month outright reverse repurchase due this month. The overall funding situation was stable, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [70]. - Interest Rate Derivatives: The yields of interest rate swap varieties increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [85]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals still face pressure, and the market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The restart of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market, and the impact of wide - credit expectations on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the bond market environment has improved [87]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - There are a total of 783 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due next week, and important economic data such as China's October social financing data and national economic activity data will be released [95]. Shipping Index Market Review - The reduction of quotes hit the sentiment of long - positions. This week, the SCFIS index turned down again. On the spot side, shipping companies reduced the price increase, which hit the sentiment of long - positions and led to a sharp decline in EC futures [96]. Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes rising. Shipping companies continued to raise the quotes for November and December, but the increase was lower than before. Considering the general demand and the decline of the SCFIS index, it is uncertain whether the price increase can be fully implemented [102][103]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in November remained at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential and actual shipping capacities are expected to continue to grow. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, and the probability of the Red Sea resuming navigation within the year is low. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to recover weakly, and the demand at the end - of - year peak season may be lower than expected, so the support for container shipping prices is limited [106][107]. Market Outlook - Although the actual demand may not support a large price increase, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108].